Good morning,

Not much to get excited about this morning. The ASX 200 is trying so hard to get over 4300 but will slip back again today.US markets were pretty much unchanged for most of the day before slipping at the end to finish down 43.. despite good consumer confidence numbers, but Monday was so strong that may not be a bad thing..

The US is currently trading on around 15 times earnings with the long term average around 16.4..there used to be a law of 20 when it comes to P/E ratios..the P/E plus the Inflation rate should be around 20! Bit simplistic but food for thought…anyway we will give back yesterday’s gains and languish just below the crucial resistance…it’s beginning to look like a Himalayan assault with base camp, advanced base camp ..Sherpas (Wall Street) trying to push camps higher for that final go at summiting!!Of course,once you get to the top there is a great view and then you have to get down safely!

European markets also gave up ground so no good news there…everyone is a buyer on pullbacks so downside limited..only when everyone is in, will the market fall out of bed and we are a way away from that..Pullbacks are a chance to buy…however listen very carefully as I will say this only once ( like Michele in Allo Allo..)..sell in May and go away! Do not get caught too long in May as the market will pullback as the summer in Northern Hemisphere approaches..all the performance in the market occurs in the first 5 months.

Stocks to look at..

All the fast moving shale stocks BRU/NSE/OBL/KEY/SXY etc were all a little softer yesterday afternoon as money was needed for BPT capital raising..use any further weakness to accumulate these..BRU are my favourite as everyone knows!!

Things that caught my eye today

1.Chelsea win the first leg of their Champions League quarter final..no Man United anywhere to be seen!!

2.Deluded as usual …The Reserve Bank believes it, rather than retail banks, controls the general level of Australian interest rates, notwithstanding moves by ANZ and other banks to adjust rates independently.

3.Murdoch in trouble again with hackers giving away rivals passwords…naughty naughty boys!

4.LEI more trouble at Mill!!These boys are not to be trusted…avoid this stock like the plague..

5.ACCC has delayed again their decision on the AUN/Foxtel merger..taking longer than the Craig Thompson inquiry..come on guys let’s get this over with..if AUN fall back which they will time to have another look perhaps..

6.Ireland will vote on their Euro bailout measures on May 31st…French elections look interesting as well as Hollande looks to be ahead of ‘Teacozy’

7.From Charlie Aitken’s missive this morning  Macau March gaming revenues est. +25% yoy  (Buy CWN)

8.More large cap companies downgrading..LEI,SGP and BOQ in recent days does not bode well..Queensland exposed stocks especially bad..

9.RATE cut coming next Tuesday as the RBA is reluctantly coming to grips with the impact of the high Aussie Dollar..lock in your US holiday rate soon..I suspect we will see it below parity which will spur the ASX 200 higher.

10.Saw Margin Call last night..worth a look..mainly for Jeremy Irons’ performance which is class as usual…tidiest trading room I have ever seen!!!

Back on Sky TV this afternoon 4.30,

‘And its good night from me and goodnight from him’

Clarence

XXX

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